Markets digest, 5 November 2026: Nasdaq and Dow fall, Bitcoin drops and the CFTC targets geographic limits on contract markets
The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,315.000 and the Dow at 51,523.06, both lower. Bitcoin ended at $76,152.52, and the CFTC issued an interpretation on exchange access.
US jobs report, October 2026: payrolls rise 165,000, unemployment 4.1%
BLS data show employers added 165,000 jobs in October, unemployment changed little at 4.1%, and August and September payrolls were revised up by a combined 84,000.
Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4% in an 8–1 vote as energy prices climb
The Monetary Policy Committee voted on 4 November for a 0.25 percentage point rise, with one member wanting 4.25%. UK inflation is now expected to reach around 5% by the middle of next year.
Markets digest, 4 November 2026: Dow and Nasdaq rise, Bitcoin climbs and Treasury sets its refunding
The Dow closed at 53,356.12 and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,736.510. Bitcoin ended at $80,420.06, and Treasury set out a $125 billion refunding.
Treasury offers $125 billion at its November refunding and will move the 7-year note to quarterly new issues
Treasury will auction 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities on November 9, 10 and 12, keep coupon sizes steady for the next several quarters and change how it issues the 7-year note from March 2027.
Markets digest, 3 November 2026: Nasdaq rises as the Dow slips and equity perpetual futures open on US exchanges
The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,372.010 and the Dow at 51,786.72. Bitcoin ended at $76,934.21, and the CFTC said perpetual futures on single stocks can now trade on US exchanges.
Central banks and ETFs lift gold buying in the third quarter as jewelry demand falls, World Gold Council says
Total gold demand was 1% lower year on year at 1,369t in Q3 2026, the World Gold Council said, as central banks added 321t and gold ETFs took in 211t.
IEA says Europe's lowest gas storage since 2013 could keep global gas markets tight well into 2027
The IEA's Global Gas Security Review 2026 forecasts a 3% fall in global LNG supply this year after the halt of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Reserve Bank of Australia raises its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%
The RBA's Monetary Policy Board voted six to three on 3 November for a rise from 4.60%, saying inflation is now expected to stay above 3% for the coming year.
Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion this quarter and $800 billion in January to March
The US Treasury's estimate for October to December is $10 billion lower than it announced in August. Details of the November refunding follow on 4 November.
ECB forecasters raise their euro area inflation outlook to 3.0% for 2026 on higher energy prices
The ECB's fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters puts headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027, up 0.3 and 0.4 points, with the longer-term view still at 2.0%.
Bank of Japan holds its policy rate at 1.25% and speeds up its ETF sales
The BoJ kept its overnight call rate target at around 1.25% on October 30 in an 8-1 vote, and raised the pace of its ETF sales to about 860 billion yen a year from January 2027.
ECB holds its deposit rate at 2.50% as energy prices push euro area inflation to 3.8%
The ECB left its three key rates unchanged on October 29, saying rising energy prices pose upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. Lagarde will step down on February 7, 2027.
Bank of Canada raises its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%
The Bank of Canada lifted its overnight rate target to 2.5% on 28 October, citing persistently high energy prices, and said it could need to raise rates further.
Economic event contracts: how prediction markets on the Fed, CPI, jobs and GDP settle
Contracts on Fed decisions and US data pay $1 or nothing, settled on the official figure as it stands at expiration. How revisions and delays are handled, and how prices compare with fed funds futures.
How options work: calls, puts, exercise, assignment and the risks of 0DTE
An option is a right to buy or sell at a fixed price until a set date. Here is how calls, puts, premium and strike work, how exercise and assignment run through the OCC, and what regulators flag about 0DTE.
How to read a CPI report: headline vs core, monthly vs annual, and why markets react
The US consumer price index arrives as a page of percentages. Here is what headline and core mean, why the monthly and 12-month figures can disagree, and how the UK and euro area versions differ.
How to read an event contract before you trade it: the terms, the fees and the CFTC filing
Every event contract on a CFTC-regulated exchange has written terms filed with the regulator. What to look for in them, from the settlement source to fees and position limits, and where to find the filing.
Markets digest, 28 October 2026: US stocks edge higher as the Fed holds rates
The S&P 500 closed at 7,743.98 and Bitcoin ended at $81,224.64. The Fed left rates unchanged and US commercial crude stocks fell 1.9 million barrels.
Micro futures explained: contract sizes, tick values, margin and fees
Micro futures are smaller versions of standard CME Group contracts. What each main micro is worth per tick, how exchange and day-trading margin differ, what you pay per contract, and why the risks don't shrink.
Prediction markets explained: how event contracts work, how the CFTC regulates them and why states object
An event contract pays $1 if something happens and nothing if it doesn't, so its price reads as a probability. How such contracts are listed, priced and regulated, and where the legal fight stands.
CFTC to publish the Commitments of Traders report twice a week
From the end of 2026 the CFTC will publish positions data on Wednesdays and Fridays instead of once a week, cutting the report's delay from three days to two.
FOMC October 2026: Fed holds rates at 3.75%–4.00%, two members dissent for a rise
The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on 28 October by a 10–2 vote, with two members preferring a quarter-point increase.
Markets digest, 27 October 2026: US stock indices close higher as the euro eases against the dollar
The S&P 500 closed at 7,722.60 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,477.810. Bitcoin ended at $80,728.47 and the euro slipped to 1.115 dollars.
Lamentations of a mining stock investor
When gold slips a few per cent, gold miners often fall twice as far. A former resource-stock trader explains why a miner was never meant to track the metal.
Markets digest, 26 October 2026: Dow and Nasdaq rise as the euro firms against the pound and yen
The Dow closed at 52,361.58 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,169.380. Bitcoin ended at $80,056.43 and the euro rose to 176.15 yen.
Euro area consumers nudge up their inflation expectations to 3.1% ahead of the ECB meeting
The ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey for September shows median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months at 3.1%, up from 3.0%, with three- and five-year expectations unchanged.
Markets digest, 23 October 2026: Dow and Nasdaq fall as the euro eases against the dollar
The Dow closed at 52,215.16 and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,955.340. Bitcoin slipped to $81,026.70 and the ECB's euro reference rate fell to 1.1193 dollars.
Markets digest, 22 October 2026: Nasdaq falls and the VIX rises to 19.03 as Bitcoin slips
The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,008.860 and the Dow edged up to 52,867.98. The VIX rose to 19.03, Bitcoin fell to $81,225.62 and the euro eased to 1.1205 dollars.
US commercial crude stocks fall 3.1 million barrels as total inventories drop 8.5 million
EIA's weekly report for the week to 16 October shows crude and gasoline stocks down about 3 million barrels each, while distillate stocks rose but stayed 9% below the five-year average.
Markets digest, 16 October 2026: US stocks fall as the VIX rises to 19.99
The S&P 500 closed at 7,659.44 and the Dow at 52,002.41, both lower. The VIX rose to 19.99 and Bitcoin ended Friday at $81,475.05 on Coinbase, while the euro firmed to 1.1253 dollars.
Markets digest, 19 October 2026: S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise as the VIX eases to 18.44
The S&P 500 closed at 7,690.73 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,430.890, both higher, while the Dow slipped. The VIX fell to 18.44 and the euro eased to 1.1225 dollars.
World Gold Council values digital gold market at US$45–55bn and sees larger latent demand
Research with Boston Consulting Group values digital gold at US$45–55bn and estimates up to US$700bn of latent demand if barriers to adoption such as trust, access, utility and cost were removed.
IEA cuts 2026 oil demand to 102.4 mb/d as diesel stays scarce
The IEA's October Oil Market Report forecasts a 2.6 mb/d fall in world oil demand this year. A day later its Governing Board agreed to speed up the last emergency stock releases, starting with diesel.
Markets digest, 15 October 2026: US stocks close higher as the VIX eases
The Dow rose to 52,177.69 and the S&P 500 to 7,744.06. Bitcoin closed at $82,140.24 on Coinbase, and the EIA reported an 8.6 million barrel fall in US commercial crude stocks.
Markets digest, 9 October 2026: stocks and Bitcoin rise as the VIX eases
The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 and the Dow at 51,654.95. Bitcoin rose to $82,543.30 on Coinbase, and the EIA reported Gulf of Mexico oil output shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias.
Markets digest, 12 October 2026: Bitcoin and the Nasdaq slip as the Dow edges up
The S&P 500 closed at 7,807.24 and the Dow rose to 51,850.55. Bitcoin fell to $81,782.78 on Coinbase, and the FSB sent the G20 a note on cross-border gaps in stablecoin oversight.
ECB account shows all members backed September rate rise with no guidance on next steps
The ECB's account of its 9–10 September meeting shows unanimous support for raising the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, and agreement that communication should stay neutral on the rate path.
Markets digest, 8 October 2026: Nasdaq and Bitcoin fall as the Dow edges up
The S&P 500 closed at 7,765.36 and the Nasdaq Composite at 27,193.340. Bitcoin fell to $81,657.19 on Coinbase, and the ECB's euro reference rate rose to 1.1186 dollars.
Fed minutes: most officials saw another rate rise as likely by year end
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's 15–16 September meeting, released on 7 October, show most participants judged that a further increase in the federal funds target range would likely be appropriate by the end of the year.
IEA members back faster emergency oil stock releases, with diesel first
At a meeting on 7 October, IEA member governments supported speeding up the oil stock releases agreed in March 2026 and prioritising diesel, with about 100 million barrels of pledged stocks still to come.
Markets digest, 7 October 2026: Bitcoin and Ether fall as the euro eases
The S&P 500 closed at 7,801.77 and the Dow at 51,179.87. Bitcoin fell to $83,239.49 on Coinbase, and the ECB's euro reference rate eased to 1.1177 dollars.
EIA expects US heating oil spending to rise 21% this winter as distillate stocks run low
The EIA's winter outlook sees households heating with oil spending 21% more than last winter, electricity users 4% more, and natural gas users 9% less. Distillate stocks are expected to be about 11% below average.
Markets digest, 6 October 2026: US stocks close higher as the euro firms
The S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93 and the Dow at 51,521.28. Bitcoin ended slightly lower on Coinbase, and the ECB's euro reference rate rose to 1.1269 dollars.
EIA says crude prices and refinery margins rose through the third quarter
Brent futures went from $72 on 1 July to a $109 peak on 15 September, the EIA said, while US refineries ran at an average 95% of capacity and distillate stocks fell 13% below their five-year average.
Markets digest, 2 October 2026: US stocks close higher as the VIX eases and the euro slips
The S&P 500 closed at 7,722.72 and the VIX fell to 15.31. Bitcoin ended slightly lower on Coinbase, and the ECB's euro reference rate fell to 1.1225 dollars.
US payrolls rise by 29,000 in September as unemployment holds at 4.2%
BLS data show employment changed little in September, and July and August payrolls were revised down by a combined 60,000. Hourly pay rose 3.0% over 12 months.
US natural gas production hit a record high in July, EIA says
Gross withdrawals reached a record 137 Bcf/d in July 2026, led by the Permian Basin. Weekly storage stood at 3,415 Bcf, 79 Bcf above the five-year average.
Markets digest, 1 October 2026: stocks and Bitcoin edge higher as the euro slips against the dollar
The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.45 and Bitcoin at $84,759.64 on Coinbase, both higher. The ECB's euro reference rate fell to 1.1298 dollars.
Markets digest, 30 September 2026: Dow and S&P 500 slip as US commercial crude stocks rise
The Dow closed at 50,906.05 and the S&P 500 at 7,651.54, both lower, while the Nasdaq rose. EIA reported a small build in US commercial crude stocks.
How futures contracts work: margin, expiry, rolling and contango
A futures contract is a standardised promise, guaranteed by a clearing house and settled in cash every day. Here is how margin, expiry and rolling work, what contango does to a long position, and how futures differ from CFDs.
Perpetual futures explained: funding rates, leverage and liquidation
Crypto perpetuals never expire, so a funding payment between longs and shorts does the job expiry does for ordinary futures. How that works, what mark price and liquidation mean, and where retail traders can use them.
SEC proposes wider retail access to private-market strategies and new routes to accredited investor status
The SEC voted to propose rule changes on performance fees, interval funds and fund share classes, and asked whether an exam or credentials such as the CFA should make someone an accredited investor.
Silver, platinum and copper: how industrial demand shapes the metals trade
Gold trades mostly on money and fear. Silver, platinum and copper also answer to factories, car plants and power grids, and their supply is concentrated in a few countries and mines. Here is how each market works and where traders reach it.
What moves oil prices: OPEC+, inventories, the futures curve and the dollar
Supply decisions, weekly stock data, the shape of the futures curve, the dollar and geopolitics all feed into Brent and WTI. Here is how each one works, and how futures and CFD traders see them.
An Update on AI and the Economy
Fed Governor Lisa Cook explains how AI investment is adding to inflation now, why productivity gains may ease it only later, what AI could mean for jobs, and why she backed the September rate increase.
Remarks by Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Francis Brooke before the Treasury Market Conference
Deputy Treasury Secretary Francis Brooke sets out Treasury's buybacks, central clearing and bank leverage reform, rising demand from banks, money funds and stablecoin issuers, and a new auction system.
CFTC Releases Staff Advisory on Mention Markets
CFTC staff warn exchanges that event contracts settling on whether a person says a word or appears somewhere carry a heightened risk of manipulation, and set out when such contracts may be listed.
Keynote Remarks at 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conference
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on derivatives at the core of the Treasury market, cross-margining before the clearing mandate, tokenized collateral and stablecoins, and why 24/7 trading won’t be one-size-fits-all.
Inside the FX market: what the BIS Triennial Survey tells us
Every three years, central banks count the world's currency trading. The 2025 survey found a market of roughly $9.5 trillion a day, still dominated by the dollar, by London and by FX swaps.
What moves gold prices: the drivers behind XAU/USD
Real yields, the dollar, central-bank buying, risk sentiment and ETF flows all pull on gold. The balance between them has shifted in recent years, and understanding that shift matters more than any single forecast.
Stock Around the Clock: Remarks at the Roundtable on Preparations for 24-Hour Trading
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce opens the SEC’s roundtable on extended-hours equity trading, pointing to FX and crypto markets and posing questions on best execution, issuers and overnight sessions.
FOMC statement, 16 September 2026: Fed raises rates to 3.75%–4.00% (full text)
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously raises the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, saying inflation remains elevated while growth is solid.
Swap rates and overnight financing, explained
Hold a leveraged FX position past the daily cut-off and you pay or receive financing. Here is how swaps are built, why Wednesday often costs three times as much, and what swap-free accounts really charge.
FX trading sessions: how liquidity moves around the clock
The currency market never formally opens or closes on weekdays, but liquidity follows the sun from Sydney to New York. Knowing the rhythm explains why spreads behave the way they do.
Why Gold Didn't Actually Overtake Treasury Securities as the World's "Favorite" Reserve Asset
A Federal Reserve Board economist looks at why world gold reserves overtook foreign official holdings of US Treasuries in value in 2025, and at the roles of gold prices and legacy Bretton Woods-era holdings.
In Our Time
At the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh discusses AI and the economy, forward guidance, the principles he believes should guide monetary policy and his view of the US economy.
Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review
Chair Powell weighs a shifting balance of risks in the 2025 economy, then explains the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals, which returned to flexible inflation targeting and eliminated the 2020 "makeup" strategy.
The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition
Federal Reserve Board economists review the dollar's use in official reserves, as an anchor currency, in trade invoicing, banking, debt issuance and FX trading, and weigh possible challenges to its dominance.
Review and Outlook
Chair Powell's 2024 Jackson Hole address: "The time has come for policy to adjust," plus his account of why inflation rose to a generational high and then fell so far while unemployment stayed low.
Keynote of Chairman Rostin Behnam at the FIA Boca 2024 International Futures Industry Conference, Boca Raton, Florida: “Stay Golden”
Ahead of the CFTC’s 50th anniversary, Chairman Rostin Behnam sets out the 2024 agenda: affiliate conflicts in new market structures, event contracts, clearing-member fund protections and an AI request for comment.
Remarks by Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang at the 2023 Treasury Market Conference
Treasury’s Nellie Liang reviews a year of high rate volatility in which Treasury market liquidity stayed orderly, with updates on transaction transparency, repo data, leverage monitoring and planned buybacks.
Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead
Chair Powell reviews the fall in inflation from its peak and the outlook for growth and jobs, and says the Fed is prepared to raise rates further and hold policy restrictive until inflation is moving sustainably down.
Oil and petroleum products explained: Oil prices and outlook
The US Energy Information Administration's explainer on what drives crude oil prices: global demand, OPEC quotas and spare capacity, supply disruptions and weather, and what futures and spot prices signal.
Monetary Policy and Price Stability
Chair Powell's brief, direct 2022 Jackson Hole message: restoring price stability will require a restrictive policy stance for some time and bring some pain, and the Fed will keep at it until the job is done.
Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID
At the 2021 Jackson Hole symposium, Chair Powell sets out why the Fed then read elevated inflation as likely transitory, and says it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases that year.
Statement of Acting Chair Lee and Commissioners Peirce, Roisman, and Crenshaw Regarding Recent Market Volatility
The SEC’s commissioners on the extreme price swings in certain stocks in late January 2021: market infrastructure proved resilient, and the Commission will review actions by regulated entities that limit trading.
Remarks at the SIFMA Equity Market Structure Conference: The Dynamics of our Markets and the Changing Structure on which they are Built
SEC Commissioner Elad Roisman opens the 2019 “Equity Market Structure Season” by asking whether best execution needs clearer guidance and whether the Order Protection Rule still fits a market of 13 exchanges.
Where Buyers and Sellers of Sugar Meet
From B. W. Dyer's 1921 booklet for sugar wholesalers, written as refined sugar futures began trading in New York: how an exchange sets a price, shifts risk to speculators and why the broker's strength matters.
The Cycles of Speculation
Chapter II of Thomas Gibson's The Cycles of Speculation (1907): why stock prices top out before business does, a roll-call of American crises from 1814 to 1903, and the ten-year rhythm of greed and folly.
The Tulipomania
Charles Mackay's chapter on the Dutch tulip mania of the 1630s, from Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841): the boom, the crash and the rescue that never came.