IEA says Europe's lowest gas storage since 2013 could keep global gas markets tight well into 2027

The International Energy Agency said on 3 November 2026 that Europe is entering the winter heating season with its lowest natural gas storage levels in more than a decade, which could extend tight conditions in global gas markets well into 2027. The findings come from its Global Gas Security Review 2026, which also carries the agency’s quarterly gas market analysis and near-term forecasts.

The supply shock

According to the IEA, the effective halt of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by more than 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) between March and October. The agency says this has driven Asian and European gas prices to their highest level since the 2022-23 gas supply crisis.

The report projects that global LNG supply will fall by 3%, or almost 20 bcm, in 2026. Global gas demand is expected to decline by around 1.5%, or close to 65 bcm, which the IEA attributes to demand destruction in the Middle East, lower industrial gas use in Europe and switching from gas to coal for power in many Asian countries.

Europe’s storage

In the European Union, storage sites are entering the 2026-27 heating season with inventories at their lowest since 2013. The IEA says this increases the region’s reliance on global LNG to meet peak demand and could leave it exposed if the winter is colder than expected or if there are outages or other supply disruptions.

The agency adds that low European storage, combined with limited storage options in LNG-importing countries in Asia and South America, could intensify competition for a scarce number of flexible LNG cargoes in the coming months and put upward pressure on spot prices during periods of high demand. Refilling European storage could also substantially increase the need for injections through summer 2027.

What it means for traders

For natural gas and LNG traders, the report sets out the IEA’s own view of the risks for the winter: storage levels, cargo competition and weather. The agency also notes that growing LNG supply, particularly from North America, and more flexible trading arrangements, including spot trading and destination-flexible contracts, have helped markets weather the shock.