ECB forecasters raise their euro area inflation outlook to 3.0% for 2026 on higher energy prices
The ECB's fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters puts headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027, up 0.3 and 0.4 points, with the longer-term view still at 2.0%.
Professional forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank expect euro area inflation of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, the ECB said on October 30, 2026, raising their outlook mainly because of higher energy prices and their knock-on effects.
The numbers
Headline inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, is expected at 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028. The 2026 and 2027 figures are 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points higher than in the previous round, while 2028 is unchanged. Longer-term expectations, for 2031, stayed at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation, which excludes energy and food.
Respondents see the balance of risks to inflation tilted to the upside for 2026 to 2028 and more balanced after that. A special question on the war in the Middle East found that forecasters mainly expect further effects of the energy price shock in 2027, with limited second-round effects.
On growth, respondents expect real GDP to rise 1.0% in 2026, up 0.4 points from the last survey, and 1.3% in both 2027 and 2028. They see risks to growth tilted somewhat to the downside. The unemployment rate is expected at 6.4% in 2026, easing to 6.1% in the longer term.
About the survey
The survey ran from October 2 to 7, 2026, and drew 52 responses from experts at financial and non-financial institutions based in Europe. The ECB notes that the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
What it means for traders
The survey asked forecasters about the assumptions behind their numbers too, including the ECB’s deposit facility rate, the euro-dollar exchange rate and Brent crude prices; the detailed data is on the ECB’s SPF page. Their headline inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 rose while their longer-term view held at 2.0%. For the ECB’s latest rate decision, see our report on the ECB’s October decision.
What happens next
The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area are due on December 18, 2026.
Markets: Forex
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