Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion this quarter and $800 billion in January to March

The US Department of the Treasury said on November 2, 2026 that it expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt in the October–December 2026 quarter, and $800 billion in the January–March 2027 quarter.

The estimates

The October–December figure assumes an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. It is $10 billion lower than Treasury announced in August 2026, which the department attributes mainly to a higher-than-assumed cash balance at the start of the quarter, partly offset by lower projected net cash flows. Leaving out that higher opening cash balance, the estimate is $24 billion higher than in August.

The January–March 2027 estimate assumes an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion.

Last quarter

In the July–September 2026 quarter, Treasury borrowed $742 billion and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $984 billion. In August it had estimated borrowing of $739 billion and an end-of-September cash balance of $950 billion. Treasury says the $4 billion difference came mainly from the higher cash balance, offset by higher net cash flows; leaving that balance out, actual borrowing was $30 billion lower than announced in August.

What it means for traders

Privately-held net marketable borrowing is the amount Treasury needs to raise from investors other than the Federal Reserve, so it is a starting point for how much new debt the bond market will have to absorb. The release does not say how the borrowing will be split between bills, notes and bonds; that comes with the Quarterly Refunding.

What happens next

Treasury will release additional financing details for its Quarterly Refunding at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.