Economic event contracts: how prediction markets on the Fed, CPI, jobs and GDP settle
Contracts on Fed decisions and US data pay $1 or nothing, settled on the official figure as it stands at expiration. How revisions and delays are handled, and how prices compare with fed funds futures.
How to read an event contract before you trade it: the terms, the fees and the CFTC filing
Every event contract on a CFTC-regulated exchange has written terms filed with the regulator. What to look for in them, from the settlement source to fees and position limits, and where to find the filing.
Prediction markets explained: how event contracts work, how the CFTC regulates them and why states object
An event contract pays $1 if something happens and nothing if it doesn't, so its price reads as a probability. How such contracts are listed, priced and regulated, and where the legal fight stands.
Insider trading in prediction markets: the US rules on event contracts, and the cases so far
Trading an event contract on misappropriated information, or on an outcome you control, can break federal law and exchange rules. What applies, what regulators have flagged, and the cases brought in 2026.
CFTC sues Utah to stop state action against registered prediction markets
The CFTC has filed a lawsuit to block Utah's civil enforcement actions against CFTC-registered contract markets, saying federal law gives it exclusive jurisdiction.
CFTC and the NBA agree to share information on basketball prediction markets
The CFTC has signed a memorandum of understanding with the National Basketball Association to exchange information on the integrity of basketball and the event contract markets tied to it.
CFTC proposes defining event contracts as swaps and excludes casino-style gambling
The CFTC has proposed writing event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather into the definition of a swap, and adopted an interim final rule excluding licensed casino-style gambling from it.
CFTC Releases Staff Advisory on Mention Markets
CFTC staff warn exchanges that event contracts settling on whether a person says a word or appears somewhere carry a heightened risk of manipulation, and set out when such contracts may be listed.