ECB account shows all members backed September rate rise with no guidance on next steps

The European Central Bank published on 8 October the account of its Governing Council meeting held in Berlin on 9–10 September 2026, at which it raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The account says all members supported the proposal, which took the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.50%.

Why the Council raised rates

Mr Lane proposed the increase, citing inflation pressures from the conflict in the Middle East and staff projections showing inflation well above target for an extended period. The September staff baseline saw headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with the 2027 figure revised up by 0.2 percentage points and the 2028 figure by 0.1 points compared with June. Inflation excluding energy and food was projected at 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028.

According to the account, all members saw the risks to the inflation outlook as being to the upside. Members pointed to low European gas storage, high refining margins and the possibility of an unusually cold winter. Others noted that energy prices had closely followed political developments and that the shock could fade quickly if the conflict were settled.

The account also records that a deposit facility rate of 2.50% remained within the range of neutral interest rates estimated by ECB staff, and that the economy was seen as resilient enough to absorb the increase. Staff projected growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028.

No signal on the next move

Members agreed that communication should stay neutral, suggesting neither that the September rise was another step in a predetermined tightening cycle nor that it was the last one. The Council kept its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, without committing to any rate path.

What it means for traders

The account gives no forward guidance. The Council said it would keep monitoring the size and persistence of the energy price increase and watch carefully for second-round effects on prices and wages. In the review of financial markets that opened the meeting, Ms Schnabel noted that markets had priced in 84 basis points of hikes by the end of 2027, compared with 64 basis points at the time of the July meeting.

What happens next

The ECB says it expects to publish the account of its next monetary policy meeting on 26 November 2026.