FOMC October 2026: Fed holds rates at 3.75%–4.00%, two members dissent for a rise

The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3-3/4 to 4 percent at the end of its 27–28 October meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee approved the decision by 10 votes to 2, with the two dissenters preferring a quarter-point increase.

What changed

The rate. In September the Committee raised the range by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, unanimously. This time it held the range there. The implementation note keeps the rates the Fed uses to steer the market where September’s increase put them: interest on reserve balances stays at 3.90 percent, effective 29 October, the standing overnight repo rate at 4.0 percent and the overnight reverse repo offering rate at 3.75 percent. The Board also kept the primary credit rate at its existing 4.0 percent.

The vote. September’s decision was 12–0. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against holding the range on 28 October, preferring to raise it by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

The wording. Most of the statement is unchanged from September: uncertainty remains elevated owing partly to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient, job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. Two passages are different:

• Economic activity is now described as expanding at a strong pace; in September the pace was solid.
• September’s line that the rate rise would support a timelier return to the 2 percent goal is gone. In its place the Committee says that the accumulation of more information will help it determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2 percent goal.

The statement still says inflation remains elevated and that the Committee will deliver price stability. The balance-sheet instructions in the implementation note (Treasury bill purchases when appropriate to keep reserves ample, and reinvestment of maturing securities) are the same as in September.

What it means for traders

The federal funds range is the anchor for short-term dollar interest rates, so a decision to hold or move it feeds into Treasury yields, the interest-rate differentials that drive currency pairs, and the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. For leveraged FX and CFD traders it also matters directly: brokers’ overnight financing charges are built from benchmark rates like these, as our guide to swap rates and overnight financing explains.

The statement is released at 2:00 p.m. New York time, late in the US session. Our market hours tool and the guide to FX trading sessions and liquidity show which centres are open at that hour.

What’s next

The minutes of this meeting are due three weeks after it, on 18 November. The Committee next meets on 8–9 December, a meeting the Fed’s calendar marks as one with a Summary of Economic Projections.