Euro area consumers nudge up their inflation expectations to 3.1% ahead of the ECB meeting

Euro area consumers expected slightly higher inflation over the coming year in September, according to the European Central Bank’s Consumer Expectations Survey, published on Friday 23 October. The results come days before the ECB’s Governing Council meets on 28 and 29 October.

What the survey found

Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Median expectations for three years ahead were unchanged at 2.9%, and for five years ahead unchanged at 2.5%. Consumers’ median perception of inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%.

The ECB said uncertainty about inflation over the next 12 months rose slightly and stayed above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Respondents in the lowest income group continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest.

The economic outlook in the survey weakened. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the unemployment rate expected in 12 months’ time rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Expected growth in nominal income edged up to 1.1% from 1.0%, and expected spending growth to 3.7% from 3.6%.

Consumers expected the price of their home to rise by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4%, and their expectations for mortgage rates in a year’s time were unchanged at 4.9%. More households reported that access to credit had tightened over the past year, and more expected it to tighten further.

Why it matters for traders

Consumer inflation expectations are one of the measures the ECB uses for policy analysis, alongside other data. The survey covers around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries, and fieldwork for this wave ran from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The release states the figures and does not say how they will bear on the coming decision.

What happens next

The Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting runs over 28 and 29 October in Frankfurt, with a press conference after the second day. The ECB has scheduled the survey results for October for 27 November 2026.