EIA says crude prices and refinery margins rose through the third quarter

Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally rose through the third quarter of 2026, the US Energy Information Administration said in a review published on 5 October. It linked the rise to continued conflict in the Middle East and to the unwinding of some measures that had cushioned supply losses earlier in the year.

Crude prices

According to the EIA, front-month Brent futures began the quarter at $72 a barrel on 1 July, the lowest since 26 February. The agency said prices had been held down by greater flows through the Strait of Hormuz in June, after a memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June.

After military strikes resumed on 7 July, Brent futures passed $100 on 23 July and then traded between $79 and $98 until 8 September. They passed $100 again on 9 September, when the EIA said military action escalated against energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia, including attacks on tankers, a US blockade of Iranian oil exports and attacks on Saudi pipeline pumping stations.

Brent futures peaked at $109 on 15 September, while spot prices reached as high as $132 around the same time. Prices averaged around $104 in the last two weeks of the quarter.

The EIA also pointed to two supporting factors fading: China’s crude imports, though still well below pre-war levels, were up from May and June, and releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve slowed significantly in September.

Refining

US refineries ran at an average 95% of capacity in the quarter, processing the most crude for a third quarter since 2019, when capacity was 4% higher. The quarterly gasoline crack spread was more than double its year-earlier level, and the distillate and jet fuel spreads were almost three times their year-ago levels, which the EIA put down to tight global supply as refining in Russia, China and the Middle East was disrupted.

In the week ending 25 September, US distillate inventories were 13% below their five-year average, gasoline stocks were 7% below and jet fuel stocks were 3% above, the EIA said.

Why it matters

For traders of crude, products and refining spreads, the review sets out the official account of the quarter, including a mid-September peak when Brent spot prices ran well above the front-month futures price. Our guide to what moves oil prices explains the main drivers.