Economic event contracts: how prediction markets on the Fed, CPI, jobs and GDP settle

An economic event contract asks a yes-or-no question about an official number: will the Federal Reserve raise its target range at a given meeting, will monthly CPI inflation come in above a stated level, will payrolls rise by more than a given amount. It pays $1 if the answer is yes and nothing if it is no, and it settles on the figure published by the Fed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) or the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the contract terms we read, the figure standing at expiration decides: revisions published after that don’t change who gets paid.

This guide covers how these contracts are written and settled, and how their prices compare with fed funds futures. For the basics and the legal fight over event contracts, see our prediction markets explainer. It does not forecast any release or decision.

How exchanges list contracts on economic data

CFTC-regulated exchanges self-certify event contracts: they file the terms with the CFTC and certify that they comply with the law. The filings are public and answer the questions that decide the payout: whose number counts, which version, and when trading stops.

KalshiEX, a CFTC-designated contract market, has filed recurring contracts on the main releases. Its 2023 filing for a contract on what the Fed will do at a named FOMC meeting lists one iteration per meeting, with the Federal Reserve System as the source agency. Its 2022 filings cover the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls from the BLS Employment Situation report, monthly CPI-U inflation from the BLS, and quarterly real GDP growth from the BEA. Each is a $1 contract that trades in 1-cent increments.

CME Group has entered the same field. In a filing dated 19 November 2025, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange certified six “event contract swaps”, effective 5 December 2025, on CPI-U, the GDP advance estimate, nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, core PCE prices and FOMC meetings. They are $1 binary options that trade on CME Globex and clear as swaps through CME Clearing. The filing lists one contract per scheduled release: 12 a year for CPI, payrolls, unemployment and PCE, 4 for GDP advance estimates and 8 for FOMC meetings. A buyer pays the full premium up front; a seller’s maximum loss is $1 a contract, which CME holds until expiration.

What each contract settles on

• Fed decisions. Kalshi’s meeting contract settles on FOMC decisions to change, or not change, the target range for the federal funds rate. A separate Kalshi contract, on the highest rate reached by a given date, uses the upper bound of that range. The Fed sets a range, not a single rate: on 28 October 2026 the Committee kept it at 3-3/4 to 4 percent by a 10–2 vote, with two members preferring an increase (our report).
• Jobs. Kalshi’s payrolls contract settles on the change in total nonfarm payroll employment that the Employment Situation report gives for the named month, typically the figure in its first sentence.
• CPI. Kalshi’s 2022 inflation contract uses the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted CPI-U. A contract on the 12-month rate, or on core prices, would settle on a different number, so the measure named in the terms matters as much as the strike.
• GDP. The BEA reports quarterly real GDP growth at an annual rate and estimates each quarter three times, so a GDP contract has to say which estimate counts.

Trading stops just before the release: CME’s filing ends it at 8:29 a.m. Eastern Time on the day the data are released, and at 1:59 p.m. on the FOMC announcement date, which it defines as the second day of the meeting in the Fed’s calendar. The FOMC statement itself comes out at 2:00 p.m.; Kalshi’s 2023 Fed terms stop trading at 1:55 p.m. ET.

Revisions: the first print decides

Each agency revises its data differently:

• Payrolls. The BLS routinely revises the prior 2 months in every report, to add late sample reports and recalculated seasonal factors; a monthly estimate is final only after two revisions. Once a year, payrolls are benchmarked to unemployment-insurance records. The BLS puts the absolute average benchmark revision over the prior 10 years at 0.2 percent.
• CPI. The unadjusted CPI-U is final when issued. Seasonal factors are re-estimated every year, though, and seasonally adjusted indexes can be revised for up to 5 years.
• GDP. The advance estimate comes about a month after the quarter ends; the second and third estimates add source data that weren’t available earlier.
• The Fed. A decision is not revised, but the next one can reverse it.

Kalshi’s payrolls, CPI and GDP filings all say that revisions made after expiration are not counted. The payrolls contract, for instance, expires at the first 10:00 a.m. ET after the release, so the first print decides it: a “yes” holder keeps the payout even if the BLS later revises the figure below the strike, and the reverse.

GDP shows how much the choice of version matters. Kalshi’s February 2022 GDP growth contracts used the most recent estimate available, whether advance, second, third or final. CME’s contract is on the advance estimate. A June 2026 Kalshi filing for GDP comparison contracts requires each listing to name the estimate version, uses the figure as it first appears in that release, and says that ordinary revisions, from advance to second to third estimate or in an annual or benchmark update, don’t affect resolution. The BEA’s schedule lists the advance estimate for the third quarter of 2026 on 29 October, the second estimate on 25 November and the third on 23 December.

Delayed or canceled releases

CME’s rules say that if an event is delayed, rescheduled or canceled before trading ends, final settlement waits for a contingency date set in the contract table, and that the exchange may in its sole discretion set a settlement price that best reflects the market’s valuation. Kalshi’s June 2026 GDP terms cover a figure that isn’t published by expiration, including when the agency declines to release it during a government funding lapse: a “data unavailable” strike, if listed, resolves yes; otherwise contracts resolve at a last fair price set by the exchange. Kalshi’s filings also let it name a new source agency if the original’s reliability is in doubt.

The BLS schedule lists the October jobs report on 6 November 2026 and October CPI on 10 November, both at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Fed’s calendar shows the next FOMC meeting on 8–9 December.

Event contract prices versus fed funds futures

The CFTC says an event contract’s price reflects traders’ perceived probability of the outcome. For Fed decisions, an older market also carries those expectations: 30-Day Federal Funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, part of CME Group, which the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report lists as contracts of $5,000,000. They are priced as 100 minus a rate and settle on the average daily effective federal funds rate (EFFR) for the contract month; a 2017 exchange filing clarified that the last day’s EFFR is used as first published, even if it is later revised. The New York Fed calculates the EFFR as a volume-weighted median of overnight fed funds trades and publishes it at about 9:00 a.m. for the previous business day.

Because changes to the target come in discrete steps on FOMC meeting dates, the futures can be read as a “step” path from which the odds of a move at each meeting are backed out, Fed Board staff explained in 2016. A 2002 Fed staff paper found that fed funds futures predicted policy better than other market measures at horizons out several months.

Example, with hypothetical numbers: a 30-day month has an FOMC decision that takes effect on day 11, the effective rate is 4.35% for the first 10 days, and that month’s futures trade at 95.60, an implied average of 4.40%. If the rate after the meeting is r, then (10 × 4.35 + 20 × r) ÷ 30 = 4.40, so r is 4.425%, or 0.075 percentage point above 4.35%. If the only outcomes were no change or a 0.25-point rise, and ignoring term premiums, that implies a 30% chance of a rise (0.075 ÷ 0.25). A “yes” contract on a rise at that meeting priced at 30 cents would match; one priced at 40 cents would not.

The two can disagree for several reasons:

• Different questions. Futures settle on an average rate, which can drift within the target range; an event contract settles on a named decision.
• Term premiums. Futures prices can include compensation for risk. The Fed staff note found that assuming zero term premiums matched survey data well for the next two to three meetings, while premiums looked larger, and negative, further out.
• Who trades, and how much. The markets draw different participants under different position rules. Open interest in fed funds futures was 2,766,665 contracts on 20 October 2026.
• Costs. Spreads and fees on a $1 contract shift the price at which a trade breaks even.

The risks

• Total loss. A losing contract pays nothing.
• Wording. Seasonally adjusted or not, monthly or 12-month, which estimate: a trader who reads the headline but not the terms can be right about the economy and still lose.
• Revisions. The settling figure may later be revised, and the payout stands.
• Delays and discretion. A late or canceled release can defer settlement or leave the price to the exchange.
• Liquidity. The CFTC notes that more complex contracts may attract fewer participants.

The CFTC says customers are entitled to the contract terms, including how settlement determinations are made, who decides and how. For exchange-traded rate futures more broadly, see how futures contracts work.

Frequently asked questions

Does a revised jobs number change who gets paid? Not under the terms Kalshi filed for its payrolls contract: revisions made after expiration don’t count, and the contract expires the morning of the release. Check each contract’s terms, since another listing could name a different version.

When do Fed and data contracts stop trading? Shortly before the release. CME’s filing stops data contracts at 8:29 a.m. ET on release day and FOMC contracts at 1:59 p.m. on the decision day; Kalshi’s 2023 Fed terms stop at 1:55 p.m. ET.

Are fed funds futures and Fed event contracts the same thing? No. Fed funds futures settle on the average effective federal funds rate for a month, while an event contract pays $1 or nothing on a named decision. Both carry market expectations, and their implied odds can differ.